000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291505 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Thu Nov 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N94W to low pres near 16N104W to 09N124W. The ITCZ continues from 09N124W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 99W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ W of 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Low pressure remains centered off the coast of SW Mexico near 16N104W. Even though tropical cyclone development is less likely associated to this low, heavy rains remain possible through Friday over portions of SW Mexico, including the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This heavy rain will bring the possibility of flash floods and mudslides. Large long period NW swell continues to prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula. Seas off Baja California Norte will continue to build, peaking near 17 ft on Friday before beginning to subside. The swell will continue to propagate SE, bringing seas greater than 8 ft to the offshore forecast waters W of 100W by Saturday. Seas will gradually start to subside through the weekend, finally subsiding below 8 ft over the offshore waters early next week. In the Gulf of California, strong west gap winds will follow the cold front into the northern Gulf late tonight into early Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to start next Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will pulse across the Gulf each night through Sun night. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will remain between 08N and 11N during the rest of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail on either side of the trough, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N124W to 24N140W. The front will continue eastward, moving E of the area Friday. Large, long period NW swell is impacting the forecast waters, with seas greater than 8 ft noted over much of the area W of 110W. Seas will peak near 18 ft over the waters N of 28N Friday before beginning to subside. Seas will subside below 8 ft over much of the forecast waters by early next week. A new set of NW swell is forecast to move into the far NW waters late Mon. $$ AL