000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290951
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N96W to 12N103W to 
11N115W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08N123W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 75 nm either 
side of the convergence axis between 112W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated 1008 mb 
low pressure area centered near 16N105W southwest of Manzanillo, 
Mexico, have become less organized since yesterday, and further 
development of this system is not likely due to strong upper-
level winds. Shower activity associated with the low is forecast 
to move toward southwestern Mexico today, bringing locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Mexican states of 
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with the possibility of 
flash floods and mudslides. A scatterometer pass indicated fresh 
to strong S to SW winds east and southeast of the low center. 
Maximum wave heights are 13 to 14 ft based on altimeter data.

Large long period NW swell continues to sweep into the forecast 
waters west of Cabo Corrientes. Seas in excess of 12 ft in NW 
swell will dominate the waters off Baja California into Sat as 
reinforcing NW swell associated with a cold front moves into the 
area. Seas in excess of 8 ft will linger in the open waters off 
Mexico north of Acapulco through Sat. 

In the Gulf of California, strong west gap winds will follow the
cold front into the northern Gulf late tonight into early Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will pulse across the Gulf each
night through Sun night.

Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will remain between 08N and 11N 
during the rest of the week, with gentle to moderate winds on 
either side of the trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas expected. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the NW part of the area from 32N125W 
to 24N140W. Recent altimeter passes show a large area of 8 to 14 
ft seas over most the region west of 120W, primarily due to long 
period NW swell associated with the front. Fresh westerly winds 
will follow the front north of 28N this evening today.

$$
Mundell