000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure 
in eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of Tehuantepec is 
supporting 30-35 kt northerly winds. Earlier visible satellite 
imagery depicted a large arc cloud feature emanating well away 
from shore, denoting the presence of the strong to gale force 
northerly winds. Gale force winds will continue about six more 
hours, then rapidly diminish today and tonight as high pressure 
over eastern Mexico quickly weakens. Seas in the Gulf region 
will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight.

Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low pressure area is embedded along the
monsoon trough near 13N106W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become conducive for some gradual 
development and there is a medium chance a tropical depression 
could form during the next two days as the low drifts toward the 
coast of Guerrero and Michoacan states in Mexico. Refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATWOEP/ABNT20 KNHC for more information on this system.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N92W to the low 
pressure near 13N106W to 07N126W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N126W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
within 60 nm either side of the convergence axis west of 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: Moderate northerly winds across the north 
and central Gulf of California will diminish today, with seas of 
3 to 5 ft. Winds are expected to increase to 20 to 25 kt with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft across the northern Gulf Thu night and Fri as 
a cold front sweeps across the area. 

Long period northwest swell of 8 to 13 ft is reaching the coast 
of Baja California Norte. The swell will reach the southern 
coast of Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. 
The swell will reach as far east as 105W by late Thu between 
Clarion Island and Cabo Corrientes, mixing with southerly swell. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast winds will pulse across the 
Gulf each night through Sat.

Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will exist between 08N and 11N 
during the rest of the week, with gentle to moderate winds on 
either side of the trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas expected. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on a low 
pressure area with potential for tropical cyclone development.

A cold front is across the far NW portion of the discussion area 
from 32N135W to 29N140W. The front will weaken today, but a 
reinforcing surge of cold air will push the front southward to 
near 25N west of 125W through Thu, with the eastern part of the 
front moving into northern Baja California Thu night. Large long 
period NW swell associated with the front will dominate most of 
the region west of 120W through Thu, reaching 14 to 16 ft north 
of 28N. This swell will continue to move eastward through Sat.

$$
Mundell