000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2119 UTC Sun Nov 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... High pressure building S along the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico on Mon will support a gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late Mon afternoon. The winds will rapidly increase to minimal gale force right after the onset of this event with seas building to 14 ft by Tue morning. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish Tue afternoon through Wed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 07N90W to low pressure 1008 mb centered near 09N102W to low pressure 1008 mb centered near 08N118W to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are present from 05N to 12N between 98W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 12N between 106W and 120W, and from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell N of 23N will subside below 8 ft through tonight. A cold front will approach 30N140W by Tue night. Large long period NW swell will propagate well ahead of the front and reach the waters W of Baja California Norte by Tue morning and the southern tip of Baja California Sur by Wed morning, with seas of 8 to 12 feet in NW swell expected west of Baja through Fri. Elsewhere, low pres centered near 09N102W may lift out of the monsoon trough during the next couple of days and slowly drift NNW, eventually entering the waters S of Acapulco, Mexico near 14N104W by Wed night. This system may gradually develop as it tracks NNW, possibly producing fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Enhanced infrared imagery from GOES-E continues to show intermittent plumes of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala. The plumes track WNW and become diffuse as they cross into SW Mexico and near the coast of Chiapas. The volume of ash within these plumes remains light and does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over the area each night through this week. Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will meander between 05N and 10N during the next several days with gentle to moderate NE winds prevailing N of the trough, and gentle to moderate SW winds continuing S of the trough. Seas will hover between 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial SW swell through Tue, then increase to between 5 and 8 ft S of 10N by midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N134W and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds over the waters from 09N to 15N west of 125W. Earlier altimeter data continues to show seas of 8 to 11 ft in this region, with seas 8 ft or greater extending as far N as 21N. These seas coincide under a larger area of fresh winds in mixed NE and NW swell that stretches from 08N to 22N W of 120W. Low pres centered near 08N118W is generating fresh winds in the NW semicircle of the low, with seas to 10 ft within 210 nm of the low center. The low will move W during the next couple of days. Large long period NW swell associated with a strong cold front over the north central Pacific will push SE from 30N140W early on Mon, then seas will rapidly build to between 14 and 18 ft in the far NW waters by Mon night. This robust event will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above for most of the waters W of 110W by Thu morning. $$ Latto