000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251005
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

High pressure building east of the Sierra Madre Occidental in 
Mexico on Mon will support a gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Mon evening. The winds will rapidly 
increase to minimal gale force right after the onset of this 
event with seas building to 13 ft by Tue morning. Winds and seas 
will gradually diminish through Wed morning. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 09N86W to a low 
pressure 1008 mb near 07N102W to low pressure 1007 mb near 
09N117W to 08N132W to beyond 07N139W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N to 16N W of 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A modest pressure gradient between a trough of low pressure over
Mexico and surface ridging west of Baja California will maintain 
moderate to fresh N to NW winds W of 114W through Sun evening, 
then winds will diminish to gentle speeds. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in 
NW swell N of 22N will subside below 8 ft by Sun evening as 
well. A cold front will approach 30N140W by Tue night. Large 
long period swell will propagate well ahead of the front and 
reach the waters W of Baja California Norte by Tue morning and 
the southern tip of Baja California Sur by Wed morning, with 
seas of 8 to 12 feet in NW swell expected west of Baja through 
Fri.

Elsewhere, low pres near 07N102W may break away from the monsoon 
trough over the next couple of days and slowly drift NNW, 
eventually entering the waters S of Acapulco, Mexico near 
14N104W by Wed night. This system could acquire convection and 
gradually develop as it tracks NNW, possibly producing fresh to 
strong winds and seas to 10 ft by Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Enhanced infrared imagery from GOES-E continue to show a plume 
of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern 
Guatemala. The plume becomes diffuse as it nears the coast of 
Guatemala. The volume of ash within the plume remains light and 
does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse each
night through Thu.

Elsewhere, the monsoon trough will meander between 05N and 10N 
during the next several days with gentle to moderate NE winds 
prevailing N of the trough, and gentle to moderate SW winds 
continuing S of the trough. Seas will hover between 4 to 6 ft in 
cross equatorial SW swell through Tue, then increase to 5 to 8 ft 
S of 10N by midweek. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure centered 
near 29N137W, a surface trough along 08N139W to 11N138W and the 
monsoon trough support an area of fresh to strong NE winds over 
the waters from 09N to 19N west of 130W. Latest altimeter data 
continue to depict seas of 8 to 11 ft in this region. A bigger 
area of fresh winds winds in mixed NE and NW swell is from 08N 
to 25N W of 120W. A low pres near 09N117W is generating a broad 
and disorganized area of convection within 310 nm of its center. 
Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm NE semicircle of the low 
with seas to 10 ft. The low will move westward the next couple 
of days, thus helping to maintain the area of strong winds 
aforementioned.

Large long period NW swell associated with a strong cold front
over the north central Pacific will push SE from 30N140W early 
on Mon, then seas will rapidly build to between 14 and 18 ft in 
the far NW waters by Mon night. This robust event will cause 
seas to build to 8 ft or above for most of the waters W of 110W 
by Thu morning.

$$
NR