000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1325 UTC Sat Nov 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1415 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N82W to low pres 1008 mb near 08N98W to low pres 1009 mb near 07N115W. The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm either side of a line from 07N113W to 06N120W to 10N137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A modest pressure gradient between a trough of low pressure over Mexico and surface ridging west of Baja California will maintain moderate to fresh N to NW winds W of 112W through Sun morning, then winds will diminish to gentle speeds. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell N of 24N will subside below 8 ft by Sun afternoon. A cold front will approach 30N140W by Tue evening. Long period swell will propagate well ahead of the front and reach the waters of Baja California Norte by Tue evening and the southern tip of Baja California Sur by Wed night. Seas of 8 to 13 feet in NW swell are expected west of Baja Tue night through Thu. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Monday night with winds rapidly increasing to minimal gale force right after the onset of this event with seas building to 13 ft Tue morning. Winds and seas will generally diminish late Tue morning through Thu night, but winds will pulse stronger at night in response to nocturnal drainage. Otherwise, 1008 mb low pressure currently centered near 08N98W is expected to slowly drift NNW and eventually enter the waters S of Acapulco, Mexico near 13N103W by Wed night. This system could acquire convection and gradually develop as it tracks NNW and produce with fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Enhanced infrared imagery from GOES-E shows a plume of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala. The plume becomes diffuse as it nears the coast of Guatemala. The volume of ash within the plume remains light and does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse through Tue night. The monsoon trough will wander between 05N and 10N during the next several days with gentle to moderate NE winds prevailing N of the trough, and gentle to moderate SW winds continuing S of the trough. Seas will hover between 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pressure centered near 30N137W and the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds over the waters from 10N to 12N between 130W and 136W. The latest altimeter data continues to show 8 to 11 ft seas within this region. Surface low pres will develop near 09N134W by Sun morning, then weaken as it heads W. The low will cause the area of strong winds in this region to expand Tonight and Sun, then winds will diminish as the low weakens and dissipates Sun night and Mon. Large long period NW swell associated with a strong cold front over the north central Pacific will push SE from 30N140W early on Mon, then seas will rapidly build to between 14 and 18 ft in the far NW waters by Mon night. This robust event will cause seas to build to 8 ft or above for most of the waters W of 110W by Thu morning. $$ CAM