000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240247
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
021 UTC Sat Nov 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N77W to 10N85W to 07N96W to 
06N102W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N102W to 06N120W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 06N to 09N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is from 05N to 11N between 121W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure building eastward across the offshore waters W of 
the Baja California peninsula combined with the Sonora trough
will support fresh to locally strong NW winds across the waters N
of 27N E of 118W this evening and tonight, and N of 28N between 
116W and 117W by Sat evening, with seas to 9 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

RGB products from GOES-E show a plume of volcanic ash originating
from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala becoming diffuse as
it drifts west over land. The intensity of the plume is light 
and does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse until Sat
evening, then diminish to near 20 kt thereafter. Winds are 
forecast to become stronger Mon night.

The monsoon trough will meander along 08N to 09N during the next 
few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and 
moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4 to 6 
ft in cross equatorial SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between a high pressure of 1025 mb located
near 29N135W and the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong NE
winds covering mainly the waters from 13N to 22N W of 130W. A 
recent altimeter pass provides observations of 9-10 ft seas 
within this area of winds. Similar marine conditions are expected
through Sat. The aerial extent of these winds will slightly 
diminish on Sun as the high pressure weakens some.

Large long period NW swell associated with a cold front in the 
north central Pacific is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas 
rapidly building to 14-18 ft in far NW waters by Mon night.

$$
Formosa