000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231527
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1421 UTC Fri Nov 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
near 09N77W to 09N90W to 07N103W. The ITCZ axis continues from 
07N103W to 07N120W to beyond 07N140W. Clusters of moderate to 
isolated strong convection are observed from 06 to 10N W of 
127W. Similar convection is from 08N to 11N between 122W and 
125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist
this morning, becoming light and variable in the afternoon. The 
next gap high wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast
on Mon, likely reaching minimal gale force Mon evening through 
Tue morning. Seas are expected to build to 11-12 ft with this 
event.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected
N of 28N, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of 28N through 
tonight. Winds will become mainly light and variable during the
weekend. Then, expect moderate to fresh NW-N winds across the
northern Gulf Mon through Tue as high pressure settles over the
Great Basin of United States.

High pressure building eastward across the offshore waters W of 
the Baja California peninsula combined with the Sonora trough
will support fresh to locally strong NW winds across the waters N
of 27N E of 118W today and tonight, and N of 25N between 115W 
and 118W by Sat morning, with seas of 6 to 9 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

RGB products from GOES-E show a plume of volcanic ash originating
from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala becoming diffuse as
it drifts over the Pacific Ocean near 14N92W. The intensity of 
the plume is variable, but does not warrant an ashfall advisory 
at this time. 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE winds will diminish today, 
but will continue to pulse to near 20 kt through the weekend. 
Winds are forecast to become stronger Mon night.

The monsoon trough will meander along 08N to 09N during the next 
few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and 
moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4 to 6 
ft in cross equatorial SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface trough extends from 22N125W to 14N130W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 15N to 22N E of the trough to 120W. The
pressure gradient between a high pressure of 1029 mb located 
near 30N135W and this trough is supporting an area of fresh to 
strong NE winds covering mainly the waters from 09N to 23N W of 
122W. A recent altimeter pass provides observations of 9-13 ft 
seas within this area of winds. Similar marine conditions are 
expected through Sat. The aerial extent of these winds will 
slightly diminish on Sun as the high pressure weakens some.

Large long period NW swell associated with a cold front in the 
north central Pacific is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas 
rapidly building to 14-18 ft in far NW waters by Mon night.

$$
GR