000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230923 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W. The ITCZ axis continues from 07N94W to 06N112W to 10N123W to 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 75 nm of the axis between 87W and 98W, and from 06N to 10N W of 124W. A surface trough extends from 21N125W to 13N131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N and 25N between 120W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist this morning, becoming light and variable in the afternoon. The next gap high wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast on Mon, likely reaching minimal gale force Mon evening through Tue morning. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are expected through Sat. High pressure will build W of the Baja peninsula, with fresh NW winds expected through the weekend, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite imagery shows a plume of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala becoming diffuse as it drifts over the Pacific Ocean near 14N92W. The intensity of the plume is variable, but does not warrant an ashfall advisory at this time. Some ash with reduced visibilities may be possible at times near the coast of Guatemala the next few days. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE winds will diminish today, but will continue to pulse to near 20 kt through the weekend. Winds are forecast to become stronger Mon night. The monsoon trough will meander along 08N to 09N during the next few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft in westerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large long period NW swell associated with a cold front in the north central Pacific is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas rapidly building to 14-18 ft in far NW waters by Mon night. $$ Mundell