000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 UTC Fri Nov 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N77W to 09N87W to 06N95W to 06N103W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N103W to 08N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 05N between 79W-95W. Similar convection is from 06N-14N between 120W-127W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 127W-140W. A surface trough extends from 30N115W to 24N121W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-30N between 115W-125W. A surface trough extends from 21N125W to 13N131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-22N between 125W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist to Fri. Winds will become light and variable Fri afternoon through Sun. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast late on Mon, likely reaching minimal gale force Mon evening through Tue morning. Seas will build to 11-12 ft with this event. Gulf of California: In the northern portion of the Gulf, gentle to moderate NW to N will follow in behind a weak cold front moving across the area later this evening. In the southern Gulf, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will increase to moderate to fresh late today through Fri night as a high pressure W of the Baja California Peninsula builds eastward. A surfcae trough is already clipping the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California Peninsula. The trough will continue to move eastward while dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough, ushering in moderate to fresh NW winds through Fri night, increasing to fresh to locally strong N of 26N Sat, before diminishing as the gradient relaxes. Building seas in NW swell will accompany the increasing winds, with heights of 6 to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A light plume of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala is just inland from the coast at 92W, and does not warrant an ashfall advisory. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas to 8 ft will diminish this afternoon, but will pulse again tonight into early Fri before becoming weaker during subsequent nights. Winds are forecast to increase back to fresh to strong starting Mon night. The monsoon trough will extend roughly along 08N/09N during the next few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be in the range of 4 to 6 ft mainly in mixed long-period SW and NW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A new and larger set of NW swell is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas building to up to 14 to 18 ft near 30N140W by late Mon night. $$ Formosa