000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2127 UTC Thu Nov 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low pressure near 10N77W to 07N95W to 06N103W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N103W to 09N130W, then resumes from 09N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 04N between 79W- 90W...including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is from 06N-13N between 119W-129W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 132W-140W. A cold front extends from 30N118W to 23N125W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-29N between 116W-130W. A surface trough extends from 19N126W to 14N130W to 09N131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-20N between 123W- 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist to Fri. Winds will become light and variable Fri afternoon through Sun. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast late on Mon, likely reaching minimal gale force Mon evening through Tue morning. Seas will build to 11-12 ft with this event. Gulf of California: In the northern portion of the Gulf, gentle to moderate NW to N will follow in behind a weak cold front moving across the area later this evening. In the southern Gulf, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will increase to moderate to fresh late today through Fri night as a high pressure W of the Baja California Peninsula builds eastward. A cold front is already clipping the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California Peninsula. The front will continue to move eastward while dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, ushering in moderate to fresh NW winds through Fri night, increasing to fresh to locally strong N of 26N Sat, before diminishing as the gradient relaxes. Building seas in NW swell will accompany the increasing winds, with heights of 6 to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A light plume of volcanic ash originating from the Fuego volcano in southern Guatemala is just inland from the coast at 92W, and does not warrant an ashfall advisory. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas to 8 ft will diminish this afternoon, but will pulse again tonight into early Fri before becoming weaker during subsequent nights. Winds are forecast to increase back to fresh to strong starting Mon night. The monsoon trough will extend roughly along 08N/09N during the next few days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be in the range of 4 to 6 ft mainly in mixed long-period SW and NW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N118W to 23N125W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed on either side of the front. Seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell behind the front are covering the waters N of 22N W of a line from 30N125W to 22N130W. The front will weaken as it shifts E of the area, while the swell gradually decays through the weekend. A new and larger set of NW swell is expected to arrive early Mon, with seas building to up to 14 to 18 ft near 30N140W by late Mon night. $$ GR