000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Wed Nov 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds will persist through the morning before diminishing to fresh to near gale force. Winds will then increase back to minimal gale force in the evening into early Thu before diminishing back to fresh to near gale force through early Fri. Winds will become light and variable Fri afternoon through Sun, then will approach gale force again by late Sun night. Seas will build to 11-12 ft during the gale force events. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N74W to 10N86W to 06N103W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N103W to 08N110W to 06N114W to 08N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within an area bounded by 19N128W to 13N125W to 13N132W to 10N136W to 15N139W to 19N128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section for Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning information. Gulf of California: In the northern gulf, light and variable winds will persist through tonight, briefly becoming moderate to fresh out of the SW-W by early Thu ahead of a decaying cold front which will move across the area through Thu night. Gentle to moderate NW winds will follow the front Fri night through the weekend. In the southern gulf, gentle to moderate NW-N winds will increase to moderate to fresh in the wake of the front, diminishing by Sat afternoon through the remainder of the weekend. Weak high pressure is W of Baja California Norte with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds W of 100W, along with 3-5 ft seas. A decaying cold front will move across the area Thu with high pressure building in its wake Fri. NW-N moderate to fresh flow will arrive Fri along with building NW swell of 6-9 ft. Winds will increase to fresh to strong W of Baja California Norte by early Sat as the pressure gradient tightens, diminishing by early Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas building briefly to 8 ft are expected through early Fri, diminishing thereafter. The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N for the next several days with gentle to moderate NE winds N of the trough, and moderate to fresh SW winds S of the trough. Seas will be 4-6 ft mainly in mixed long period SW and NW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N129W to 26N134W to 24N140W with lagging NW swell of 8-13 ft behind it, the highest near 30N140W. The front and swell will progress E-SE across the waters N of the ITCZ, with the swell gradually subsiding by the weekend while high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas prevail from 10N to 20N. The pressure gradient will tighten today between troughing propagating westward along the ITCZ and the building high N of the area. This developing gradient will support fresh to strong trades, even near gale force in spots, and building seas of 8-12 ft in fresh NE wind waves and long period NW swell. These conditions will continue through much of the weekend before significantly diminishing late Sun. $$ Lewitsky