000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1530 UTC Tue Nov 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force northerly winds will pulse across the gulf waters through this coming afternoon. Stronger drainage flow this evening will result in minimal gale force conditions developing and then continuing through Wed morning. Associated seas are forecast to build to up to 12 ft near 15N95.5W late tonight. The northerly winds are then forecast to be strong to near gale Wed afternoon to Fri morning. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 08N84W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 07N105W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from there to 08N120W to another 1010 mb low pressure near 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough E of 87W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 93W and 100W as well as 105W to 110W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection appears within 180 nm of the ITCZ W of 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section for Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning information. Gulf of California: Fresh breeze or weaker winds through Sat night. Enhanced pressure gradient from southwestern US to over the eastern Pacific should force NW strong breeze in the northern Gulf on Sunday. Seas should remain below 8 ft. A 1018 mb surface high is meandering near 27N118W with a weak ridge extending across the Mexican offshore waters W of near 100W. Winds should remain at fresh breeze or weaker conditions through Fri night. The same enhanced pressure gradient will briefly contribute to a NW strong breeze west of Baja California on Sat before diminishing again on Sun. Long-period NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive at 32N120W late Thu, and reach the northern coast of the Baja Peninsula early Fri, with these swells propagating as far S as 22N late Fri night through Sat before diminishing on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas building briefly to 8 ft are expected through early Fri. Winds will diminish in the Gulf late Fri through Sun. The monsoon trough will meander between 08N and 10N for the next several days with NE moderate breeze or weaker north of the trough and SW moderate breeze or weaker south of the trough. Seas will remain below 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front extends from a 1013 mb low near 32N124W and extends in our area from 30N120W southwestward to 23N128W. A second cold front extends from a 1012 mb low near 30N130W southwestward to 26N135W. Finally, a dissipating cold front extends from 30N138W to 28N140W in our northwestern corner. None of the three have any significant winds, seas, or convection associated with them. Behind this last front, long-period NW swell of at least 8 ft will be reaching 30N140W this afternoon. These will progress southeastward across the basin, peaking around 12-14 ft on Wed near 30N135W. The swell will gradually diminish in amplitude and drop below 8 ft on Fri. A trough extends from 07N131W to 14N131W. While winds are at moderate breeze or weaker, seas are up to 8 ft in mixed swell in a small area W of the trough. These will diminish below 8 ft on Wed. Finally beginning Wed, the pressure gradient will tighten and result in a large area of strong breeze to near gale NE tradewinds generally between 12N and 22N W of 120W. Peak seas will reach near 12 ft due to NE wind waves with the aforementioned NW swell. These conditions will continue through Sat before diminishing on Sun. $$ Landsea