000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds continue across the Gulf this morning and extending as far S as 14.5N95.5W, and are accompanied by seas to 12 ft. These northerly winds will diminish slightly through late this morning and continue at around 20-30 kt through Mon morning, pulsing during the early morning hours to just below gale force. Gale force winds are then expected to develop again on Tue evening and continue through Wed morning. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76.5W TO 07N80W TO 08.5N85W TO 06.5N95W, where it transitions to ITCZ, and continues on to low pres near 09.5N116W TO 09N139.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06.5N between 77W and 82W, and within 210 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 100W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds along with seas of 3 ft or less will prevail early Sun before moderate NW winds develop across the south half of the gulf waters on Sun night and Mon. The remnants of a cold front will move into the region from the NW by late Wed of next week and act to freshen NW winds across the full length of the Gulf Thu through Fri. A weak NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast around the meandering ridge through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas building briefly to 8 ft well downstream, are expected through the middle of next week. Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, and 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period northeasterly swell generated from the broad wind field downstream of Tehuantepec is mixing with cross-equatorial SW swell across the waters S of 13.5N between 93W and 116W. This swell will propagate W reaching across the waters S of 15N between 105W and 124W on Sun, then gradually subside to less than 8 ft by the middle of next week. A ridge is meandering from 32N130W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed from 09N to 17N W of 122W, will subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon. A cold front is entering at 30N140W and will be accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 9 ft seas. The front will weaken early next week, but still reach the Baja Peninsula late on Wed. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft late Mon. Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Sun night, with yet another pulse Tue afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong W winds N of 30N between 125W and 140W on Wed. Strong NE trades are also forecast from 15N to 22N W of 135W by early Wed. $$ Stripling