000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as far S as 14.5N95.5W, accompanied by seas to 14 ft, will gradually diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through late Sun morning. Near gale force northerly winds will resume on Sun evening and continue through late Mon morning, then develop again on Mon evening and continue through Tue morning. Model guidance is hinting at minimal gale force conditions developing again briefly on Tue night. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N85W and then turns SW to 08N97W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues NW to 09N110W to 09N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm either side of a line from 08N97W to 07N105W to 09N118W and within 60 nm of 16N113W and 09N139W and 04N139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Light NW-N winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are expected across the entire gulf waters tonight. Light and variable winds are expected over the northern gulf waters early Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf waters on Sun night, becoming a fresh breeze over the northern waters on Mon and Mon night. A weak NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast around the meandering ridge through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas building briefly to 8 ft well downstream, are expected through the middle of next week. Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period northeasterly swell is mixing with cross-equatorial swell across the waters S of 14N between 93W and 113W. This swell will propagate W reaching across the waters S of 15N between 105W and 124W on Sun, then gradually subside to less than 8 ft by the middle of next week. A ridge is meandering from 32N130W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed between 10N and 20N W of 123W, will subside to less than 8 ft by early Sun. A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W overnight accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will weaken early next week, but still reach the Baja Peninsula on Wed. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft late Mon. Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Mon night. A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong W winds N of 30N between 125W and 140W on Wed. Strong NE trades are also forecast from 15N to 22N W of 135W on Wed. $$ Nelson