000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as far S as 14.5N95.5W, accompanied by seas to 16 ft, will gradually diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through late Sun morning. Near gale force northerly winds will resume on Sun evening and continue through late Mon morning, then develop again on Mon evening and continue through Tue morning. Model guidance is hinting at minimal gale force conditions developing again briefly on Tue night. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N78W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N86W and then turns SW to 08N98W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W to 07N104W to 09N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm either side of a line from 08N95W to 08N109W to 06N113W, within 150 nm of 11N121W, and within 30 nm either side of a line from 11N131W to 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Light NW-N winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are expected across the entire gulf waters tonight. Light and variable winds are expected over the northern gulf waters early Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf waters on Sun night, becoming a fresh breeze over the northern waters on Mon and Mon night. A weak NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas building briefly to 8 ft well downstream, are expected through the middle of next week. Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Long period northeasterly swell is mixing with cross-equatorial swell across the waters S of 14N between 92W and 113W. This swell will propagate W reaching across the waters S of 15N between 105W and 124W on Sun, then gradually subside to less than 8 ft by the middle of next week. A ridge is meandering from 32N130W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed between 10N and 20N W of 122W, will subside to less than 8 ft by early Sun. A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W tonight accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will weaken early next week, but reach the Baja Peninsula on Wed. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft late Mon. Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Mon night. A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong W winds N of 30N between 125W and 140W on Wed. Strong NE trades are also forecast from 15N to 22N W of 135W on Wed. $$ Nelson