000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as far S as 13.5N96W, accompanied by seas to 20 ft, will gradually diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through at late Sun morning with model guidance now hinting at the possibility of minimal gale conditions resuming on Sun evening and continuing through late Mon morning, then possibly developing again on Mon evening. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave has its axis from 04N136W to 15N135W, moving westward at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 132W and 140W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N77W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N82W, then continues W-SW to 07N105W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W-NW through a weakening tropical wave at 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm either side of a line from 08N90W to 09N101W to 06N112W and from 09N to 14N between 129W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are expected across the entire gulf waters overnight. Light N winds are forecast by late Fri and light and variable winds are expected by late Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf waters on Sun night, becoming a fresh breeze over the northern waters on Mon. A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is expected N of 12N between 87W and 90W, including the Gulf of Fonseca for the next few hours. Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate SE into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through late Fri before subsiding. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating W from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward and slowly diminish through Sat. A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W on Fri night accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will wash out along 130W early next week. Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Tue. $$ Nelson