000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as far S as 13N96W, accompanied by seas to 21 ft, will gradually diminish through late Sat morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through at late Sun morning with model guidance now suggesting that minimal gale conditions will resume on Sun evening and continue through late Mon morning, then return again Mon evening. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave has its axis from 04N135W to 15N135W, moving westward at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W, then continues W-SW to 07N102W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W-NW through a weakening tropical wave at 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm either side of lines from 08N86W to 06N94W to 09N101W and from 12N117W to 12N130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are expected across the entire gulf waters tonight. Light N winds are forecast by late Fri and light and variable winds are expected by late Sat. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf waters on Sun night then becoming a fresh breeze over the northern waters on Mon. A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is expected N of 12N between 87W and 90W, including the Gulf of Fonseca, through late tonight. Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate SE into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through late Fri before subsiding. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating W from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward and slowly diminish through Sat. A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W on Fri night accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 9 ft seas. The front will wash out along 130W early next week. Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Tue. $$ Nelson