000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force winds extending as far S as 14N95W will persist through late tonight with winds to 40 kt then persisting through sunrise on Fri. Gale conditions should end around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through at least late Tue night. Max seas of 22 ft are forecast well downstream near 13.5N96W, while seas 8 ft or greater, primarily due to the resultant NE swell mixing with cross-equatorial SW swell, are forecast to spread out across the waters from 03.4S to 14N between 90W and 115W by late Fri. These seas should diminish below 8 ft on Sun night, but continue across and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave has its axis from 04.5N130W to 16N130W, moving westward at 12 kt. Convection is decreasing at the moment. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 10N75W across the northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W, then continues W-SW to 05N102W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues NW to 10N116W to 08N130W through a weakening tropical wave at 08N130W to 07N140W. Isolated moderate to strong within 75 nm either side of a line from 09N79W to 07N92W to 13N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 10N113W to 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Gulf of California: Strong N winds, with seas to 7 ft, are expected N of 30N overnight. Fresh N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas expected elsewhere overnight with a moderate NW breeze, and 1 to 3 ft seas, forecast across the entire gulf on Thu afternoon through Thu night. A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican waters W of 104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong northerly flow is expected N of 12N between 87W and 90W, including the Gulf of Fonseca, through early Fri. Northerly swells from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Thu morning. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating outward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward and slowly diminish through Thu. A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W late Fri night accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 9 ft seas. $$ Nelson