000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico on Tue followed by a strong high pressure system. Winds are forecast to first reach minimal gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Tue morning, then suddenly increase to 40-45 kt by early Tue afternoon as the strong high pressure over NE Mexico extends a ridge southward across the Mexican coastal plains. A very tight pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehunatepec is expected to support these very strong winds, which are forecast to reach minimal storm force (48-50 kt) by early Tue evening. Seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to build up to 19-22 ft by Tue night. Storm force winds are expected to persist through Wed evening, with gale force winds likely lasting into early Sat morning. Gale Warning along and west of the coast of northern Baja California: Strong high pressure building across the southwestern United States and northern Mexico will bring strong to near gale force northerly winds over the Gulf of California. These winds will funnel through mountain passages across Baja California Norte and bring mimimal gale force northeast winds over regional waters, particularly from 28N to 30N E of 115W- 116W beginning late Mon night and continuing through Tue early in the afternoon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas of 8-10 ft are also expected across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends from 08N117W to 15N115W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is associated with a 1010 mb low located near 08N117W, which is generating scattered moderate convection within 120 nm from the low center. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N95W to 09N107W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N107W to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 08N117W to 07N120W to 09N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 103W and 114W, and from 06N to 11N between 120W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm event and on a gale event off the west coast of Baja California Norte. Gulf of California: Strong high pressure N of the area is already producing fresh to strong NW winds across the northern and central Gulf. These winds will spread southward across the entire length of the Gulf of California and across the waters between Las Marias Islands and Los Cabos by late Mon night. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 10 ft before starting to subside Tue morning as the high pressure slightly shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through this afternoon, with moderate to fresh winds thereafter. Winds will increase back to fresh to strong by Tue night as a tight pressure gradient develops over northern Central America behind a strong cold front moving into the NW Caribbean. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft by Thu morning. This second gap wind event will last through the end of the weekend. A strong Tehunatepec gap wind event W of the area is forecast to spread strong to near gale force winds and building seas of 12 to 18 ft into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, particularly W of 92W, Tue night through Thu morning. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW winds S of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Cross equatorial long period SW swell will keep seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and as far north as near the Azuero Peninsula through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1023 centered west of California near 31N129W extends a ridge SE across the northern forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ tonight into Tue morning, resulting in fresh to locally strong trades just N of the ITCZ. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will be associated with these winds covering roughly the waters from 10N to 17N W of 120W by Tue. A cold front will attempt to approach 30N140W the next few days, but will stall and weaken just to the northwest of the area. A set of northwest swell associated with this front is forecast to cross 30N140W by early Wed, with seas of 8 to 10 ft covering much of the waters north of 10N W of 130W by early Thu. Cross equatorial SW swell of 7 to 9 ft will propagate across the waters S of 06N between 100W and 120W today through early Wed. $$ NR