000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 UTC Sat Nov 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will shift across
the Gulf of Mexico and reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning.
This will usher in the next gale force gap wind event across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds will begin late 
tonight and are forecast to increase to minimal gale force before
1200 UTC Saturday. Then, winds will further increase to 35-40 kt
by early Sat evening. Seas are expected to build in and 
downstream of the Gulf up to 13-14 ft with the strongest winds. 
Winds will diminish below gale force by Sun morning, then further
diminish to 20 kt or less by early Mon morning. 

Looking ahead, a more significant gap wind event is expected to 
start early Tue. Winds are forecast to rapidly increase to strong
gale force by early Tue afternoon, reaching storm force by early
Tue evening with seas building to 26-28 ft. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W N of 10N. Isolated 
showers are near the southern end of the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 09N90W to a 1010 mb low
near 09N102W to 10N113W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W and continues
beyond 08N140W. No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin region is
helping to produce fresh to strong NW across the Gulf N of 28
with seas of 8 ft just N of 30 N. High pressure will shift from 
the Great Basin region Saturday, which will help diminish winds 
to 20 kt or less. Strong high pressure will build again north of 
the area on Monday, thus resulting in fresh to strong winds N of 
30N beginning Sun evening. Fresh to strong winds will spread S
reaching the entrance of the Gulf by Mon evening. Strong winds 
are expected to reach the entrance of the gulf N of 22N by Mon 
evening. Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft before starting to
subside Tue morning as the ridge slightly shift eastward. 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja
California producing mainly a light to gentle anticyclonic flow
and seas of 4-5 ft. These marine conditions will persist this
weekend. Strong high pressure will build over the SW of United
States and Mexico on Monday. Strong winds in the northern Gulf of
California will funnel across Baja California Norte into the Bay
of Sebastian-Vizcaino Bay and other regions west of the Baja 
California Peninsula Mon evening into Tue.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of 
Papagayo beginning Sat night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds 
are forecast north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate
southwest winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. 
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

High pressure of 1034 mb located well N of the area extends a
ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Moderate trades are noted N of the ITCZ and west of 
130W. A weak trough extends from 16N115W to 09N118W. Isolated
showers are where the trough meets the ITCZ. A swirl of low
clouds is near 17N119W. 


$$
GR