000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of Mexico and reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will usher in the next gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds will begin late tonight and are forecast to increase to minimal gale force before 1200 UTC Saturday. Winds will diminish below gale force by Sun morning, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by early Mon morning. Looking ahead, a more significant gap wind event is expected to start early in the afternoon on Tue. Winds with this gap event will reach strong gale force, with the possibility of reaching storm force Tue night. Seas are forecast to build to 24 ft by that time. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 103.5W from 06N to 15N. Scattered to isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of its axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N100W to 11N112W. The ITCZ extends from 08N120W and continues beyond 07N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 87W and 104W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered near 44N135W southeastward to near 21N113W. The ridge will prevail over this area the next few days. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow, around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. Seas over this area will be in the 4-6 ft range today, then subside slightly through the weekend. Strong high pressure will build over the western CONUS and over Mexico on Monday. Strong winds in the northern gulf will funnel across Baja California Norte to the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay and other regions west of the Baja California Peninsula through Wed. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin region is helping produce strong to near gale force northerly winds over the northern Gulf. High pressure will shift from the Great Basin region Saturday, which will help diminish winds to 20 kt or less. Strong high pressure will build again north of the area on Monday, thus resulting in fresh to strong winds N of 30N begining Sun night. Strong winds are expected to reach the entrance of the gulf N of 22N by Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 8 ft before starting to subside Tue morning as the ridge slightly shift eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Sat night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west of 130W, while gentle to moderate E to SE flow is noted south of the ITCZ. Northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters, and seas to 8 ft are noted N of 29N between 125W and 130W. Seas over this area will slowly subside below 8 ft tonight. $$ NR