000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of Mexico and reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will usher in the next gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds will begin late Fri night and are forecast to increase to minimal gale force Sat afternoon. Winds will diminish below gale force by Sun morning, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by early Mon morning. Looking ahead, a more significant gap wind event is expected to start Tue early in the afternoon. Winds with this gap event will reach strong gale force, with the possibility of reaching storm force. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W N of 09N. No deep convection is associated with this wave at the time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N111W. The ITCZ extends from 09N118W and continues beyond 07N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 88W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered near 43N135W southeastward to near 21N110W. The ridge will prevail over this area the next few days. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow, around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. Seas over this area will be in the 4-6 ft range today, then subside slightly through the weekend. Strong high pressure will build over the western CONUS and over Mexico on Monday night, resulting on moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja California Peninsula through Wed. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin region is helping produce strong to near gale force northerly winds over the northern Gulf. High pressure will shift from the Great Basin region Saturday, which will help diminish winds to 20 kt or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Sat night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west of 120W, while gentle to moderate E to SE flow is noted south of the ITCZ. Northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters, and seas to 8 ft are noted N of 29N between 125W and 130W. Seas over this area will slowly subside below 8 ft tonight. $$ NR