000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090852 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Fri Nov 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of Mexico and reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will usher in the next gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to increase to near gale force Sat afternoon, and further increase to minimal gale force Sat evening. Winds will diminish below gale force by Sun morning, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by Mon morning. Looking ahead, a more significant gap wind event is expected to start Tue of next week. Winds with this gap event will reach strong gale force, with the possibility of reaching storm force. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W N of 08N. Convection associated to this wave is noted within 90 nm E of the wave axis from 08N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 08N94W to 11N110W. The ITCZ extends from 10N117W to 07N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 110W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 111W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered near 43N135W southeastward to near 20N108W. The ridge will prevail over this area the next few days. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow, around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. Seas over this area will be in the 4-6 ft range today, then subside slightly through the weekend. Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin region is helping produce strong to near gale force northerly winds over the northern Gulf. High pressure will shift from the Great Basin region Saturday, which will help diminish winds to 20 kt or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo beginning Sat night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west of 120W, while gentle to moderate E to SE flow is noted south of the ITCZ. Northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters, and seas to 8 ft are noted N of 29N between 125W and 130W. Seas over this area will slowly subside below 8 ft tonight. $$ AL