000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 UTC Thu Nov 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W TO 09N86W to low pres 
near 08N91W to 07N104W. The ITCZ extends from 09N109W TO 05N124W
to 08N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 nm S of the monsoon trough between
98W and 101W, and from 08N to 10N west of 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure near 41N136W 
southeastward to near Baja California Sur at 22N113W. The ridge 
will shift slightly southeastward through Fri as the remnant low
of Xavier shifts westward. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow 
around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja California 
Peninsula, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. 

Gulf of California: High pressure will build over the Great 
Basin region later this week and induce fresh to strong 
northerly winds over the northern Gulf early Fri through Sat 
morning, and raise seas to 7-10 ft. Winds will then diminish to 
15 kt or less Sat night and Sun.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of 
Mexico later this week and reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat 
morning. This will help usher in the next gap wind event across 
Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to increase briefly to near gale 
force late Saturday then diminish on Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of 
the monsoon trough today before diminishing. Long period SW 
swell will continue to impact the waters off Panama and Costa 
Rica this afternoon and tonight, before subsiding late Thu. 
Another round of cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move 
into the region Fri afternoon, and last though the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the ITCZ 
and west of 120W, while gentle to moderate E to SE flow is noted 
south of the ITCZ. A new pulse of northerly swell will build 
seas to around 8 ft N of 29.5N between 121W and 130W early Fri.

$$
AL