000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N74.5W TO 10N85W to low pres near 08N91W TO 07N106W, then transitions to ITCZ and continues on to 05.5N115W TO 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 104W and 108W, and from 13N to 16N to the west of 138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N between 119W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A midday scatterometer pass was well placed to observe the wind field associated with remnant low of Tropical Storm Xavier, which was near 18N112W. Fresh winds continue within 90 nm of the north semicircle of the low, where seas are estimated to be 7-8 ft. These fresh winds are expected to accompany the low westward through this evening, then begin to diminish late tonight through Thu morning as the low gradually weakens to an open trough. A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure offshore of northern California near 40N133W southeastward to near Baja California Sur at 23N110W. The ridge will remain in place through tonight and then shift slightly southeastward through Fri as the remnant low of Xavier shifts westward. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja California Peninsula, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Gulf of California: High pressure will build over the Great Basin region later this week and induce fresh to strong northerly winds over the northern Gulf early Fri through Sat morning, and raise seas to 7-10 ft. Winds will then diminish to 15 kt or less Sat night and Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of Mexico later this week and reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will help usher in the next gap wind event across Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to increase briefly to near gale force late Saturday then diminish on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough today before diminishing. Long period SW swell will continue to impact the waters off Panama and Costa Rica this afternoon and tonight, before subsiding late Thu. Another round of cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the region Fri afternoon, and last though the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west of 120W, while gentle to moderate E to SE flow is noted south of the ITCZ. A new pulse of northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters, and is maintaining seas to 8 ft N of 29.5N between 124W and 133W. Seas over this area will slowly subside over the next 24 hours, and then build again to around 8 ft early Fri. $$ Stripling