000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070250
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 UTC Wed Nov 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 09N95W to low pres 
near 08.5N98W to 06.5N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N105W to 
06N115W to beyond 11N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm S of the trough between 80W and 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The remnant low of Tropical Storm Xavier remains a well defined 
low level cloud swirl located near 19N110W at 0000 UTC, moving 
westward at 8 kt. Winds are expected to continue near 25 kt 
tonight and Wed morning before diminishing to 20 kt or less by 
late Wed Afternoon. 

A ridge extending from 1026 mb high pressure near 40N137W to 
offshore of Baja California Sur near 22N113W will continue to 
dominate the area the next several days. A light to gentle 
anticyclonic flow around this ridge will prevail west of the Baja
California Peninsula, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell 
expected. 

Gulf of California: High pressure will build over the Great 
Basin region later this week and induce fresh to strong northerly
winds over the northern Gulf early Fri through Sat morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front will shift across the Gulf of
Mexico later this week. The cold front is currently forecast to 
reach the Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. This will help usher 
in the next gap wind event across Tehuantepec. Winds are 
forecast to build to near gale force late Saturday, with the 
possibility of reaching minimal gale force Saturday night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate southwest monsoon flow is expected south of 
the monsoon trough through the middle of the week before
diminishing. Long period SW swell will push north of the equator 
into the waters off Panama and Costa Rica tonight into Wed, 
before fading late Thu. Another round of cross equatorial SW 
swell is expected to move into the region Fri afternoon and 
evening and last though the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail N of the ITCZ and west 
of 130W, while moderate southeasterly flow is noted south of the 
ITCZ. A new pulse of northerly swell has propagated into the 
northern waters, with seas to 8 ft N of 29N between 122W and 
130W.

$$
AL