000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 18.5N 106.2W at 05/1500 UTC 
moving WNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. 
Southwest shear of 30 kt continues to impact Xavier. This is 
limiting convection to scattered moderate within 180 nm of the 
northeast quadrant of the storm. Seas are estimated to be as 
high as 15 ft in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Swells 
generated from Xavier will continue to impact portions of the 
adjacent coastline of Mexico early this week, bringing dangerous 
surf and rip currents to these areas. Please consult products 
from your local weather office. Xavier's center is expected to 
remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and continue to 
move farther away from the coast today. Weakening is forecast 
during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate 
into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Total rain accumulations of 
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of 
Colima and Jalisco are expected today. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N84W to low pres 
near 09N94W to low pres near 14N118W to 10N129W to low pres near 
10N138W to 09N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 
05N to 13N E of 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see special features section above for more on Tropical 
Storm Xavier, which will impact the waters off SW Mexico early 
this week. 

A ridge extending from 1029 mb high pressure near 37N142W to 
just west of Baja California Sur will continue to dominate the 
area the next several days, producing a light to gentle 
anticyclonic flow.

Outside of the areas impacted by Xavier, gentle to moderate 
breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere across the open
waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the
monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Looking ahead,
long period SW swell will push north of the equator by late Tue
into the waters off Panama and Costa Rica.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other weak centers of low
pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. One of these is 
centered near 08N94W, and the other near 14N118W. Fresh winds 
and seas reaching 8 ft in mixed swell are expected with these 
low pressure areas. Elsewhere scatterometer data indicate 
moderate to fresh winds prevail N of the monsoon trough and west 
of 130W, while moderate southerly flow is noted south of the 
monsoon trough. Latest altimeter data indicates seas to 9 ft, in 
northerly swell, over the waters N of 25N between 122W and 139W. 
Seas over this area will begin to subside Tuesday. A new set of 
northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters 
Wednesday, with seas to 8 ft N of 28N between 120W and 131W.

$$
NR