000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Mon Nov 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 18.4N 105.9W at 05/0900 UTC moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Southwest shear continues to impact Xavier, with scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 75 nm of the northeast semicircle of the storm. Seas are estimated to be as high as 18 ft in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Swells generated from Xavier will continue to impact portions of the adjacent coastline of Mexico early this week, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents to these areas. Please consult products from your local weather office. Heavy rainfall is possible over Jalisco and the Cabo Corrientes area today. Xavier is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N97W. It resumes southwest of Xavier near 14N111W to low pres near 14N118W to low pres near 11N137W to 10N137W. The ITCZ extends from 10N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 115W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on Tropical Storm Xavier, which will impact the waters off SW Mexico early this week. A ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure near 36N141W to just west of Baja California Sur will continue to dominate the area the next several days, producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Outside of the areas impacted by Xavier, gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere across the open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, long period SW swell will push north of the equator by late Tue into the waters off Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other weak centers of low pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. One of these is centered near 14N118W, and the other near 11N137W. Fresh winds and seas reaching 8 ft in mixed swell are within 60 nm of these low pressure areas. Elsewhere scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh winds prevail N of the monsoon trough and west of 130W, while moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough. Latest altimeter data indicates seas to 9 ft, in northerly swell, over the waters NW of a line from 30N124W to 24N140W. Seas over this area will begin to subside Tuesday. A new set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Wednesday, with seas to 8 ft N of 28N between 120W and 131W. $$ AL