000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2114 UTC Sun Nov 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 18.1N 105.5W at 04/2100 UTC moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Southwest shear continues to influence Xavier, keeping scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the northeast semicircle of the storm. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated tropical storm force winds were evident along the coast of Mexico between Petatlan and Manzanillo, likely due to funneling along the coastal terrain. Seas are estimated to be has high as 18 ft in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Swells generated from Xavier will impact portions of the adjacent coastline of Mexico through early next week, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents to these areas. Please consult products from your local weather office. Heavy rainfall is possible over Jalisco and the Cabo Corrientes area into Mon as the system makes its closest point of approach. Xavier is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Monday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N90W to 11N98W. Another segment reaches from west of Xavier near 13N110W to low pres near 14N118W to low pres near 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 110W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on Tropical Storm Xavier, which will impact the waters off SW Mexico into early next week. A ridge extending from 1032 mb high pressure near 36N141W to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate the area through remainder of the weekend, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Outside of the areas impacted by Xavier, moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere across the open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, long period SW swell will push north of the equator by late Tue into the waters off Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other weak centers of low pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. One of these is centered near 14N118W, and the other near 11N135W. Fresh winds and seas reaching 8 ft in mixed swell are within 90 nm of these low pressure area. Elsewhere scatterometer data shows trade winds remaining fairly weak between the low pressure centers and the subtropical ridge north of 20N. Moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas everywhere west of 120W in mixed swell. Northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters as indicated by the latest altimeter data, with seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N between 120W and 130W. The swell will continue to spread SW, with seas greater than 8 ft covering the waters north of 24N and west of 125W through Mon. $$ Christensen