000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1537 UTC Sun Nov 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 17.6N 105.3W at 04/1500 UTC moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Southwest to west shear continues to influence Xavier, keeping scattered moderate to strong convection within 150 nm of the northeast semicircle of the storm. Seas over the offshore waters off SW Mexico will build as high as 20 ft in the area of maximum winds. Swells generated from Xavier will impact portions of SW Mexico through early next week, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents to these areas. Please consult products from your local weather office. Heavy rainfall is possible over Jalisco and the Cabo Corrientes area into Mon as the system makes its closest point of approach. Xavier is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Monday night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N90W to 11N98W. Another segment reaches from west of Xavier near 13N110W to low pres near 13N119W to low pres near 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 89W and 92W, and from 12N to 15N between 110W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on Tropical Storm Xavier, which will impact the waters off SW Mexico into early next week. A ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure near 36N141W to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate the area through remainder of the weekend, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Outside of the areas impacted by Xavier, moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere over the open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other weak centers of low pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. One of these is centered near 13N119W, and the other near 11N135W. Recent scatterometer data shows trade winds remain fairly weak between the low pressure centers and the subtropical ridge north of 20N. Moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas everywhere west of 120W in mixed swell. Northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters as indicated by the latest altimeter data, with seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N between 120W and 130W. The swell will continue to spread SW, with seas greater than 8 ft covering the waters NW of a line from 30N122W to 23N140W late tonight. $$ Christensen