000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030310
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0300 UTC Sat Nov 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Xavier centered near 14.5N 108.2W
at 03/0300 UTC moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 150 nm in the east semicircle of Xavier. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N
to 18N between 103W and 109W. Seas will build as high as 18 ft 
in the areas of maximum winds with seas in excess of 8 ft in much
of the area between Socorro Island, Manzanillo, and Los Cabos. 
Heavy rainfall is possible over Jalisco and the Cabo Corrientes 
area Sun and Mon as the system makes its closest point of 
approach. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N93W to 14N105W. It
resumes west of Xavier near 14N112W to low pres near 13N118W to
low pres near 09N132W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 08N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 94W
and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 09N to 13N between 110W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds behind a cold front over 
the Gulf of Mexico are pushing into the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
where strong to near gale force winds will prevail overnight. 
Strong winds will then continue through Sat evening, with 
downstream seas reaching 10 to 12 ft. The gradient weakens 
thereafter, allowing seas to subside through Sun.

A ridge extending from 1030 mb high pressure near 37N137W to the
Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate the area through
the weekend producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

Outside of the gap wind plume pushing through the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and the areas directly impacted by the developing
tropical storm, moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft will prevail
elsewhere in open waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the
monsoon trough through the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Outside of Tropical Storm Xavier, two other centers of low
pressure are embedded within the monsoon trough. Recent 
scatterometer data shows trade winds remain fairly weak between 
the low pressure centers the subtropical ridge north of 20N. 
Moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, 
with 5 to 7 ft seas everywhere west of 120W in mixed swell. 
Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Sat 
night, which will build seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N 
between 124W and 136W. 

$$
AL