000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2147 UTC Fri Nov 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Twenty-Five centered near 14.4N 109.0W at 02/2100 UTC moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the southeast semicircle of the depression. The tropical depression is expected to continue to develop further and reach tropical storm strength over the next couple of days as it moves northeastward Cabo Corrientes, then turning westward again and weakening through the middle of next week. Seas will build as high as 18 ft in the areas of maximum winds with seas in excess of 8 ft in much of the area between Socorro Island, Manzanillo, and Los Cabos. Heavy rainfall is possible over Jalisco and the Cabo Corrientes area Sun and Mon as the storm makes its closest point of approach. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico and into the isthmus of Tehuantepec. Strong northerly winds will push into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening behind the front, reaching near gale or even gale force overnight with the assistance of local drainage winds. Strong winds will continue through Sat evening, with downstream seas reaching 10 to 12 ft. The gradient weakens thereafter, allowing seas to subside through Sun. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06.5N77.5W to 15N104W to T.D. 25E near 14.4N 109.0W to low pressure near 12N118W to low pressure near 09N133W to 07N136W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 07N136W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of either side of the monsoon trough between 114W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure near 37N134W to the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate the area through the weekend producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Outside of the gap wind plume pushing through the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the areas directly impacted by the developing tropical storm, moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft will prevail elsewhere in open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A passing upper disturbance is supporting development of the tropical storm along the monsoon trough, along with the remaining two weaker low pressure systems. Shower and thunderstorm activity near these low pressure areas is diminishing for now, although additional pulses of convection are possible near these low as they migrate westward along the monsoon trough. Recent scatterometer data shows trade winds are fairly weak between the low pressure centers the subtropical ridge north of 20N. Moderate southerly flow is noted south of the monsoon trough, with 5 to 7 ft seas everywhere west of 120W in mixed swell. Northerly swell will propagate into waters Sat night, which will build seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N between 122W and 133W. $$ Christensen