000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1446 UTC Fri Nov 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Low pressure of 1007 mb embedded within the monsoon trough is analyzed near 14.5N109.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm SE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 105W and 110W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this low during the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for details. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico currently, and will push into the isthmus of Tehuantepec late today. Strong northerly winds will push into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, reaching near gale or even gale force overnight with the assistance of local drainage winds. Strong winds will continue through Sat evening, with downstream seas reaching 10 to 12 ft. The gradient weakens thereafter, allowing seas to subside through Sun. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to the low pres near 14.5N109.5W to low pres near 12N118.5W to low pres near 09.5N132W to 07N136W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 07N136W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 82W, from 09N to 11N between 94W and 100W, and from 09N to 14N between 115W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending from 1029 mb high pressure near 37N134W to the Revillagigedo Islands will continue to dominate the area through the weekend producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Low pres 270 nm south of Socorro Island is forecast to move toward just off Cabo Corrientes and the Tres Marias Islands through early Mon, possibly as a tropical cyclone. Expect an increase in winds and seas associated to this low pressure area starting this weekend into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The monsoon trough remains active as an upper disturbance propagates across the area. There are currently three areas of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Please see the special features section above for more on the possibility of tropical cyclone development of one of the low pres areas, currently near 14.5N109.5W. Another low pressure area is centered near 12N118W, with the third low pressure centered near 10N132W. There is currently a low probability of development of these other two low pressure areas within the next 48 hours. Northerly swell will propagate into waters Sat night, which will build seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N between 122W and 133W. $$ Christensen