000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020902 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 735 UTC Fri Nov 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Low pressure of 1008 mb embedded within the monsoon trough is analyzed near 14N110.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm E semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 105W and 115W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this low during the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N100.5W to low pres near 14N110.5W to low pres near 11.5N119.5W to low pres near 09.5N130.5W to 07N138W. The ITCZ extends from 07N138W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 82W, from 09N to 11N between 94W and 100W, and from 09N to 14N between 115W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 37N133W extends a ridge to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge will continue to dominate the area through the weekend producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Low pres SW of the forecast waters is forecast to move NW into the waters off SW Mexico, possibly as a tropical cyclone. Expect an increase in winds and seas associated to this low pressure area starting this weekend into early next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event will begin this evening, quickly reaching near gale conditions into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 11 or 12 ft by early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The monsoon trough remains active as a Kelvin wave is propagating across the area. There are currently three areas of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Please see the special features section above for more on the possibility of tropical cyclone development of one of the low pres areas, currently near 14N110.5W. Another low pressure area is centered near 11.5N119.5W, with the third low pressure centered near 09.5N130.5W. There is currently a low probability of development of these other two low pressure areas within the next 48 hours. Subsiding NW swell is producing seas to 8 ft are north of 29N between 122W and 126W. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft this morning. Another set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Sat night, which will build seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 28N between 122W and 133W. $$ AL