000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020343
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0300 UTC Fri Nov 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Low pressure of 1008 mb embedded within the monsoon trough is 
analyzed near 14N110.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted within 120 nm NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 106W
and 115W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive 
for additional development during the next several days. The 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance 
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to 
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N96W to low pres near
14N110.5W to low pres near 11.5N119.5W to low pres near 09N130W
to 07N138W. The ITCZ extends from 07N138W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N 
to 15N between 115W and 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 37N133W extends a ridge to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge will continue to 
dominate the area through the weekend producing a gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow.

Low pres SW of the forecast waters is forecast to move NW into
the waters off SW Mexico, possibly as a tropical cyclone. Expect
an increase in winds and seas associated to this low pressure
area starting this weekend into early next week. 

Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are 
expected tonight across the northern and central parts of the 
Gulf as a high pressure settles over the Great Basin of United 
States. Then, gentle to moderate NW winds are forecast to persist
through the weekend.  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event will begin abruptly
on Fri evening, quickly reaching near gale conditions into early
Sat. Northerly winds will then remain strong through Sat 
evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 11 or 12 ft by 
early Sat.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to fresh southwest monsoon flow is expected south of the
monsoon trough through the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

The monsoon trough remains active as a Kelvin wave is 
propagating across the area. There are currently three areas of 
low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Please see the 
special features section above for more on the possibility of 
tropical cyclone development of one of the low pres areas 
currently near 14N110.5W. Another low pressure area is centered 
near 11.5N119.5W, with the third low pressure centered near 
09N130W. There is currently a low probability of development of
these other two low pressure areas within the next 48 hours. 

Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across the northern forecast waters. Seas to 8 ft are
noted north of 28N between 125W and 130W in decaying swell. Seas
will subside to less than 8 ft tonight. Another set of northerly
swell will propagate into the northern waters Sat night into Sun
morning, which will build seas to 8 ft over the waters N of 29N 
between 123W and 131W. 

$$
AL