000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012118
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1954 UTC Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure of 1008 mb is analyzed near 13N111W. Shower 
activity associated with this system has become better organized 
during the past several hours. Currently, satellite imagery shows
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 13N-15.5N 
between 108W-111W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 09N-17N between 107W-115W. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
additional development during the next several days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days 
while the system moves slowly northward or northeastward. The 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance 
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to 
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over 
Colombia near 13N111W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11.5N119.5W 
to a third low pressure near 09N130W to 08N140W. Outside of the
convection associated with the low pressure areas, a cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-07N E of 80W 
to the coast of Colombia.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: A recent ASCAT pass provides observations of
gentle to moderate NW winds N of 27N. Moderate to locally fresh 
NW winds are expected tonight across the northern and central 
parts of the Gulf as a high pressure settles over the Great Basin
of United States. Then, gentle to moderate NW winds are forecast
to persist through the weekend. Lighter winds are expected over 
the southern Gulf of California.

High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 37N133W extends a ridge N
of 18N to the Baja California peninsula. Gentle northerly winds 
and 6-8 ft seas in NW swell prevail across the offshore waters W
of Baja California. Seas will gradually subside to 4-6 ft by 
tonight. A ridge will continue to dominate the area through the
weekend producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance indicates the next gap wind 
event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near 
gale conditions into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain
strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high 
as 11 or 12 ft by early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough, 
while moderate to fresh southwesterly flow is expected south of 
its axis through the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A low pressure located near 13N111W has a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. See Special Features
section for details. An second area of disturbed weather is 
located about 870 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula. Some development of this system is 
possible, although it could be limited due to the proximity of 
the above mentioned disturbance to the east. Farther west, showers
and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure 
located near 09N130W or about 1300 nm southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula remain disorganized. Any 
development during the next few days should be slow to occur 
while the disturbance moves toward the west or west-northwest at 
5 to 10 kt.

Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to
propagate across the northern forecast waters. Altimeter data
indicates seas of 8 ft N of 23N between 125W and 133W. Seas will
subside to less than 8 ft this evening into tonight. By Sat
night into Sun morning, northerly swell will build seas to 8 ft 
over the waters N of 29N between 123W and 131W. 

$$ 
GR