000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1444 UTC Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An elongated low pressure system located several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next few days while the system moves slowly 
northward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. 
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under 
AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over 
Colombia near 08N76W to 10N90W to 11N100W to another 1008 mb low
pressure near 12.5N111W to a third low pressure near 10N130W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
09N to 16N between 106W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 120 nm N quadrant of low pressure near 10N130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: NW winds will diminish today as a trough in 
the northern Gulf dissipates. Moderate NW winds are expected 
tonight through Fri night, with light NW flow this weekend.

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 36N133W extends a broad 
ridge N of 18N to the Baja California peninsula. Gentle northerly
winds and 6-8 ft seas in NW swell prevail across the waters N of
25N W of Baja. Seas will gradually subside to 4-7 ft by tonight.
Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere in the 
offshore waters W of 100W.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance indicates the next gap wind 
event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near 
gale conditions into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain
strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high 
as 11-12 ft by early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough, 
while moderate to fresh southwesterly flow is expected south of 
its axis through the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A low pressure located near 12.5N111W has a medium change of 
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. See Special
Features section for details. A second area of disturbed weather
has formed about 870 nm southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula. Development of this system is expected
to be slow due to the proximity of the above mentioned low 
pressure to the east. Another area of low pressure is located 
about 1300 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain 
disorganized. Any development during the next few days should be 
slow to occur while the disturbance moves toward the west or 
west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt. 

Long period northerly swell covers much of the waters N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh northerly winds N of 29N 
between 123W and 126W will diminish overnight.
  
$$
GR