000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Model guidance indicates a broad, disorganized area of low 
pressure south of Cabo Corrientes will consolidate during the 
next two days into an organized low pressure system, which will 
be in an area conducive for tropical cyclone development. The 
potential for this disturbance to become a tropical depression 
or storm during the next two days as medium, and high during the 
2-5 day time frame. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N84W to 11N101W to 
low pressure near 12N112W to low pressure near 09N129W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
07N to 15N between 106W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection 
from 06N to 10N between 96W and 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: NW winds will diminish today as a trough in 
the northern Gulf dissipates. Moderate NW winds are expected 
tonight through Fri night, with light NW flow this weekend.

High pressure centered near 37N135W extends a broad ridge N of 
18N to the Baja California peninsula. Gentle northerly winds and 
6-8 ft seas in NW swell prevail across the waters N of 25N W of 
Baja. Seas will gradually subside to 4-7 ft by tonight. Light to 
gentle anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere in the offshore 
waters W of 100W.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance indicates the next gap wind 
event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near 
gale conditions, with a good chance of minimal gale force winds 
into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain strong through 
Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 12-15 ft by 
early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough, 
while moderate to fresh southwesterly flow is expected south of 
its axis through the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Multiple weak cyclonic circulations are evident along the 
monsoon trough axis. A low pressure area within the trough is 
forecast to develop this weekend near 112W as conditions become 
favorable for intensification. See Special Features section. A 
broad area of low pressure analyzed near 09N129W lacks organized 
convection, but will continue moving slowly westward with some 
strengthening possible through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are 
forecast N and NW of the low center tonight, then diminish Fri.

Long period northerly swell covers much of the waters N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh northerly winds N of 29N 
between 123W and 126W will diminish overnight.
  
$$
Mundell