000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312032 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2030 UTC Wed Oct 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N85W to 07N96W to low pressure near 11N117W to low pressure near 09N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10N between 84W and 86W, from 09N to 11N between 109W and 111W, from 12N to 16N between 109W and 119W, from 09N to 11N between 115W and 117W, from 10N to 15N between 120W and 134W, and from 06N to 10N between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 95W and 98W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: The tail end of a cold front or frontal trough will shift S while gradually weakening. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will follow this feature, diminishing by early Thu as the feature dissipates. Moderate NW winds are forecast Thu night through Fri night, with light NW flow expected during the upcoming weekend. High pressure centered at 1030 mb near 36N133W extends a broad ridge N of 17N to the Baja California Peninsula. Gentle northerly winds and 6-9 ft seas in NW swell prevail across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula. Seas will gradually subside to 4-7 ft by late Thu. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. An exception will be during the upcoming weekend when low pressure S of Cabo Corrientes begins to possibly deepen. Marine conditions will likely deteriorate through the weekend and into early next week as the low lifts NW-N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance indicates the next gap wind event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near gale conditions, with a good chance of minimal gale force winds into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 12-15 ft by early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate NE to E flow is expected to diminish during the next few hours, then increase to moderate to fresh by the end of the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds are forecast N of the monsoon trough while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is forecast S of its axis through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak cyclonic circulations are evident along the monsoon trough axis. A broad low pressure area within the trough is forecast to develop this weekend near 110W as conditions become favorable for intensification as it lifts toward or into the SW Mexico Offshore Waters. A broad area of low pressure analyzed near 09N128W lacks organized convection, but will continue moving slowly westward with moderately favorable conditions for some strengthening. Fresh to strong winds are forecast mainly NW of the low center late tonight through Thu night before diminishing to fresh. Long period northerly swell covers much of the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh northerly winds are also found roughly N of 29N between 123W and 126W. These winds will diminish tonight. $$ Lewitsky