000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N85W to 07N94W to low pressure near 11N117W to low pressure near 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 79W, from 08N to 10N between 84W and 86W, from 06N to 08N between 92W and 97W, from 07N to 10N between 105W and 110W, from 11N to 15N between 100W and 108W, from 08N to 15.5N between 110W and 120W, and also from 09N to 15N between 120W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 125W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered at 1030 mb near 36N134W extends a broad ridge north of 17N to the Baja peninsula. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds and 6-9 ft seas across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula will slowly diminish and subside through tonight, with gentle northerly winds expected thereafter through Sun. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: A cold front over the northern Gulf this morning will shift S while gradually weakening. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will follow the front, diminishing by early Thu as the front dissipates. Moderate NW winds are forecast Thu night through Fri night, with light NW flow expected on Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Model guidance indicates the next gap wind event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near gale conditions, with a good chance of minimal gale force winds into early Sat. Northerly winds will then remain strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 12-15 ft by early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate NE to E flow is expected to diminish today, then increase to moderate to fresh by the end of the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds are forecast N of the monsoon trough while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is forecast S of its axis through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak cyclonic circulations are evident along the monsoon trough axis. A broad low pressure area within the trough is forecast to develop this weekend near 110W as conditions become favorable for intensification. A broad area of low pressure analyzed near 09N128W lacks organized convection, but will continue moving slowly westward with moderately favorable conditions for some strengthening. Fresh to strong winds are forecast mainly NW of the low center by early Thu through Thu night before diminishing to fresh. Long period northerly swell covers much of the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are also found roughly N of 29N between 123W and 126W. These winds will diminish tonight. $$ Lewitsky