000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 31 2018  

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.      

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 09N84W to 
07N93W to 09N100W to 11N115W to a low near 09N126W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 
103W and 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure centered near 36N135W extends a broad ridge north 
of 17N to the Baja peninsula. Moderate NW winds and 7-9 ft seas 
across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula will slowly 
diminish through tonight, with gentle northerly winds expected 
afterward into Sun. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected 
elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W.
  
Gulf of California: A trough over the northern gulf will move 
east of the area this morning, followed by strong northerly 
winds north of 27N, and fresh NW winds across the rest of the 
gulf tonight and Thu. Moderate NW winds are forecast Thu night 
through Fri night, with light NW flow expected on Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec...Model guidance indicates the next gap wind 
event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near 
gale conditions, with a good chance of minimla gale force winds 
N of 15N. North winds will remain strong through Sat evening. 
Downstream seas could build as high as 12-15 ft by early Sat.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate E to NE flow expected to diminish 
today, then pick up again this weekend.

light to gentle variable winds are forecast north of the monsoon 
trough while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is forecast 
south of its axis through the weekend.
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

Weak cyclonic circulations are evident along the monsoon trough 
axis. A broad low pressure area within the trough is forecast to 
develop this weekend near 110W as conditions become favorable 
for intensification. A broad area of low pressure analyzed near 
09N126W lacks organized convection, but will continue moving 
slowly westward with moderately favorable conditions for some 
strengthening. Fresh to strong winds are forecast northwest of 
the low center during the next 2-3 days.

Long period NW swell west of a line from 30N116W to 24N116W to 
15N140W will gradually subside today. A northerly surge of fresh 
winds with seas to 9 ft, is expected N of 30N between 120W and 
130W Sat evening through Mon night. 
  
$$
Mundell