000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 08N104W to a low near 11N115W to a second low near 09N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 100W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered near 36N135W extends a broad ridge north of 17N to the Baja peninsula. Moderate NW winds and 7-10 ft seas across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula will slowly diminish through Wed night, with gentle northerly winds then expected through early Sun. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: A trough over the northern gulf will move east of the area overnight, followed by strong northerly winds north of 27N, and fresh NW winds across the rest of the gulf Wed night into Thu. Moderate NW winds are forecast Thu night through Fri night, with light NW flow expected on Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Model guidance indicates the next gap wind event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, quickly reaching near gale conditions, with a high probability of gale force winds N of 15N. North winds will remain strong through Sat evening. Downstream seas could build as high as 12-15 ft by early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate to fresh NE flow is expected to gradually diminish overnight. light to gentle variable winds are forecast north of the monsoon trough while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is forecast south of its axis through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface lows continue to develop along the monsoon trough axis. A broad low pressure area along the trough near 103W is forecast to develop this weekend near 110W as conditions become more favorable for intensification. A broad area of low pressure analyzed near 11N115W is forecast to dissipate within 48 hours. A surface low near 09N126W lacks organized convection, but will continue westward with moderately favorable conditions for some strengthening. Fresh to strong winds are forecast north of the low center during the next 2-3 days. Long period NW swell west of a line from 30N116W to 24N116W to 12N140W will gradually subside through early Thu. A northerly surge of fresh winds with seas to 9 ft, is expected N of 30N between 120W and 130W Sat evening through Mon night. $$ Mundell