000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N78W across the northern Gulf of Panama, then turns NW dissecting Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W, then continues westward through embedded surface lows at 09N103W, 11N113.5W and 10N124W to 09N137W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 07N86W, within 90 nm of either side of a line from 13N101W to 14N120W, and within 120 nm of 11N129.5W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 08N103W to 09N114W to 08N126W to 06N137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extendS from 22.5N116W to 14N100W. Moderate NW winds, and 7 to 10 ft seas, across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula will gradually diminish and subside through late Wed with gentle northerly winds then expected through early Sun, except becoming briefly moderate within 60 nm of the northern and central Baja coast. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: A trough over the northern gulf waters will move E of the area tonight followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds to the N of 29.5N late tonight. Strong NW winds are expected to the N of 27N early Wed, with fresh NW winds then forecast across the entire gulf waters on Wed night into Thu, and moderate NW winds are forecast on Thu night through Fri night, and light NW flow is forecast on Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec...The next gap event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, and quickly reach gale force, then remain that strong through Sat evening. Associated seas could build as high as 15 ft downstream near 14.5N95W early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Current fresh NE flow is forecast to gradually diminish through early Wed. Light to gentle variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough this week, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface lows continue to develop along the monsoon trough. A 1009 mb surface low currently near 09N103W is forecast to continue tracking W this week, then turn northward during the upcoming weekend with conditions then becoming more favorable for intensification. A broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1009 mb surface low embedded within the monsoon trough at 11N113.5W, but currently lacks convection near the center. The low is forecast to dissipate within 48 hours. A third surface low near 10N124W also lacks convection at the moment, but will continue W with favorable conditions for strengthening. Strong winds are forecast within 150 nm over the NE semicircle in a couple of days. A small area of strong northerly winds accompanied by 9 to 13 ft seas, across the waters N of 29.5N between 120W and 128W will gradually diminish through tonight. Long period NW swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, currently W of a line from 32N116W to 10N140W will gradually subside through early Thu. A northerly surge of fresh winds with seas to 9 ft, is expected N of 30N between 120W and 130W on Sat evening through Mon night. $$ Nelson