000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N78W across the northern Gulf of Panama, then turns NW dissecting Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08.5N83W, then continues westward through embedded surface lows at 09N103W, 11N113W and 09.5N123W to 09N137W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 07N85W, within 90 nm of 07N92W, within 120 nm either side of a line from 14N97W to 13N117W, from 06N to 13N between 123W and 130W. Moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 08N103W to 08N120W, and within 150 nm of 10N138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extending SE from 22.5N116W to 15N100W will shift slightly SW during the next few days as a weak trough meanders E and W across the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh NW winds, and 7 to 11 ft seas, are forecast to spread SE across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night. Winds and seas will then diminish and subside with gentle northerly winds then expected through the upcoming weekend, except becoming briefly moderate within 60 nm of the northern and central Baja coast. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: A fresh to locally strong southerly breeze across the waters from 29.5N TO 31N will diminish today with the associated trough shift E of the area tonight followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds N of 29.5N late tonight. Strong NW winds expected N of 27N early Wed with fresh NW winds forecast across the entire gulf waters on Wed night into Thu, and moderate NW winds forecast on Thu night through Fri night, and light NW flow forecast on Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow at sunrise this morning will diminish to a moderate breeze this afternoon. Model guidance suggests that the next gap event will begin abruptly on Fri evening, and quickly reach gale force, then remain that strong through Sat evening. Associated seas could build as high as 15 ft near 14.5N95W early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh NE flow is forecast to gradually diminish through early Wed. Light to gentle variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough this week, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak surface lows continue to develop along the monsoon trough. A 1009 mb surface low currently near 09N103W is forecast to continue tracking W this week, then turn northward during the upcoming weekend with conditions then becoming more favorable for intensification. A broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1009 mb surface low embedded within the monsoon trough at 11N113W, but currently lacks convection near the center. A third surface low near 09N123W also lacks convection at the moment, but will continue W with favorable conditions for strengthening. Strong winds are forecast within 150 nm over the NE semicircle in a couple of days. A small area of strong northerly winds accompanied by 9 to 13 ft seas, across the waters N of 29.5N between 120W and 127W will gradually diminish through late Tue tonight. Long period NW swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, currently W of a line from 32N116W to 10N140W and gradually subside through early Thu. A northerly surge of fresh winds and seas to 9 ft is expected N of 30N between 120W and 130Won Sat evening through Mon night. $$ Nelson