000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N83W then continues westward through embedded surface lows at 11N111W and 10N122W to 08N127W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 05N east of 83W, and from 11N to 14N between 114W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N west of 126W, and within 210 nm west semicircle and 240 nm southeast quadrant of low pressure centered near 10N122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the area will shift slightly SW during the next few days as a weak trough meanders across the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are forecast to spread SE across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula through tonight. Winds and seas will then diminish and subside with gentle northerly winds then expected through the upcoming weekend, except becoming briefly moderate within 60 nm of the northern and central Baja coast. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are across the waters N of 30N and to the S of a surface low near 31N115W. The low will shift E of the area on tonight, dragging a cold front S across the northern gulf waters followed by strong northerly winds N of 29N on Wed. Fresh NW winds are forecast across the entire gulf waters on Wed night into Thu, and moderate NW winds forecast on Thu night through early Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow is expected across and downstream of the gulf waters to along 13.5N through late this morning. The associated N-NE swell, in the form of 8 to 10 ft seas, extends as far S as along 12N between 96W and 98W. Expect winds to diminish to 20 kt or less and seas to subside to less than 8 ft by this afternoon. Model guidance suggests that the next strong to near gale force gap event will begin on Fri night with possible minimal gale conditions on Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate to fresh NE flow is forecast to gradually diminish through tonight. Light to gentle variable winds, and 3 to 6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough this week, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed within the monsoon trough at 11N111W accompanied by fresh winds within 90 nm northeast quadrant of the low center. Convection associated with this system has significantly reduced over the last several hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are forecast north of the low as it continues to track westward the next couple of days. There is a low chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 to 5 days. A 1009 mb low pressure center is located near 10N122W. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds within the 180 nm northwest quadrant of the low. Altimeter data show seas to 7 ft, however are forecast to build to 9 ft as the low continues to move west-northwest the next couple of days. There is a medium chance for this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 3 to 5 days. Long period NW swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, currently W of a line from 32N117W to 29N116W to 12N136W, will continue to propagate E across the discussion area reaching a line from 32N117W to 28N115W to 25N116W to 18N140W tonight. These swells will subside with seas forecast to less than 8 ft on Thu. In addition, a surge of strong northerly winds is accompanied by 9 to 12 ft seas N of 29.5N between 120W and 127W forecast to diminish late today. The NW swells and seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft late Wed night. $$ Ramos