000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W then continues westward through embedded surface lows at 11N110W and 09N121W to 08N127W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which then continues W to 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the low center at 11N110W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm west semicircle of the low centered at 09N121W with scattered moderate convection within 150 nm east semicircle of the low. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N east of 103W, and from 06N to 13N west of 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the area will shift slightly SW during the next few days as a weak trough meanders across the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are forecast to spread SE across the waters N of 25N W of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night. Winds and seas will then diminish and subside with gentle northerly winds then expected through the upcoming weekend, except becoming briefly moderate within 60 nm of the northern and central Baja coast. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will develop across the waters N of 30N and to the S of a surface low expected near 31N115W overnight. The low will shift E of the area on Tue night, dragging a cold front S across the northern gulf waters followed by strong northerly winds N of 29N on Wed. Fresh NW winds are forecast across the entire gulf waters on Wed night into Thu, and moderate NW winds forecast on Thu night through Fri night. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong to near gale force northerly drainage flow is expected across and downstream of the gulf waters to along 13.5N through Tue morning. The associated N-NE swell, in the form of 8 to 10 ft seas, extends as far S as along 12N between 96W and 98W. Expect winds to diminish to 20 kt or less and seas to subside to less than 8 ft by Tue afternoon. Model guidance suggests that the next strong to near gale force gap event will begin on Fri night with hints of minimal gale conditions on Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate to fresh NE flow is forecast to gradually diminish through Tue night. Light to gentle variable winds, and 3 to 6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough this week, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed within the monsoon trough at 11N110W accompanied by scattered moderate convection within 60 nm of the low center. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are forecast north of the low as it continues westward with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 to 5 days. A 1009 mb low pressure center is centered near 09N121W. The low will track westward for a few days accompanied by fresh winds and seas to 8 ft, with a low chance of tropical cyclone development. Long period NW swell, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, currently W of a line from 32N118W to 13N136W, will continue to propagate E across the discussion area reaching a line from 32N117W to 28N115W to 25N116W to 19N137W to 11N137W Tue night. These swells will subside with seas forecast to less than 8 ft on Thu. In addition, a surge of strong northerly winds accompanied by 9 to 11 ft seas, will move into the waters N of 29.5N between 120W and 123W through late Tue before diminishing. The northerly winds will gradually diminish through late Tue night, with the NW swells subsiding and seas forecast less than 8 ft late Wed night. $$ Ramos