000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Costa Rica near 09N84W, to 08N90W, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 10N99W, to 08N105W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 08N112W, to 10N126W, and to 10N129W. The ITCZ continues from 10N129W beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 07N between the coast of Colombia and 80W, within 250 nm N of the monsoon trough between 84W and 92W, and within 45 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 90W and 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends SE, from a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 31N132W, to 24N122W, and to 19N110W. The ridge will prevail across the offshore waters through the middle of the next week. The ridge is expected to support gentle to moderate NW wind flow to the west of Baja California. NW swell in excess of 8 feet will move southward, reaching the area that is near Guadalupe Island on Monday evening, and then as far to the south as 24N west of 115W by Tuesday night. The Gulf of Tehuantepec...The next strong gap wind event will start later this morning with fresh to strong winds. The wind speeds will increase more, to near gale-force tonight with seas building to 11 feet. Strong surface high pressure that is to the north of the area will shift to the east-northeast on Tuesday afternoon, thus resulting in the end of the gap wind event. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate NE winds will prevail across and downstream of the Gulf through tonight, becoming fresh to strong from Sunday morning through late Monday. Light and variable winds with 4-6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere to the north of the monsoon trough through Monday. Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow with sea heights of 5 to 7 feet, are expected to the south of the trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between high pressure north of the area and the ITCZ is producing a swath of fresh trade winds from 15N to 17N west of 137W with seas to 8 ft. A weak cold front NW of the area is expected to dissipate on Sun. However, associated NW swell will move into the NW waters early Sun just ahead of the front. Expected seas are in the range of 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N126W to 17N139W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 10N99W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 60 nm of the center, and from 12N to 13N between 101W and 102W. This low pressure center is expected to move W during the next several days, reaching 11N104W by Sunday night. The low pressure center is forecast to open into a trough late on Tuesday, as it moves W-NW. The low pressure center will support fresh winds within 180 nm of the center. Long period SW swell will interact with the local wind waves in order to produce combined seas to 8 feet near the low pressure center through early next week. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 08N112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 75 nm of the low center in the NE semicircle. $$ mt