000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270947
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0915 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1010 mb low pressure 
near 08N89W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N99W to 1009 mb low 
pressure near 08N122W to 11N121W. The intertropical convergence 
zone begins near 11N126W and continues along 09N131W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N east of 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge extending SE from a 1022 mb high near 33N132W to 23N119W 
to NW of the Revillagigedo Islands will prevail across the 
offshore waters through the middle of next week, and is expected 
to support gentle to moderate NW flow west of Baja California. 
NW swell in excess of 8 ft will move southward, reaching the 
area around Guadalupe Island Mon evening, then as far south as 
24N west of 115W by Tue night.

Gulf of Tehuantepec...The next strong gap wind event will start 
later this morning with fresh to strong winds. Winds will 
further increase to near gale-force tonight with seas building 
to 11 ft. Strong high pressure north of the area will shift to 
the east-northeast Tue afternoon, thus resulting in the end of 
the gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate NE winds will prevail across and 
downstream of the Gulf through tonight, becoming fresh to strong 
Sun morning through late Mon.

Light and variable winds with 4-6 ft seas are forecast elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough through Mon. Moderate southwesterly 
monsoonal flow with 5-7 ft seas, are expected south of the trough
axis. 
   
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

The gradient between high pressure north of the area and the 
ITCZ is producing a swath of fresh trade winds from 15N to 17N 
west of 137W with seas to 8 ft. A weak cold front NW of the area 
is expected to dissipate on Sun. However, associated NW swell 
will move into the NW waters early Sun just ahead of the front. 
Expected seas are in the range of 8-10 ft NW of a line from 
30N126W to 17N139W.

A surface trough extends from 15N122W to 09N123W. Fresh winds 
with seas to 8 ft are from 12N to 15N between 124W and 128W.

A 1008 mb surface low analyzed along the monsoon trough near 
10N99W is expected to move W over the next several days, 
reaching 11N104W by Sun night. The low pressure is forecast to 
open into a trough late Tue as it moves W-NW. The low pressure 
will support fresh winds within 180 nm of the center. Long 
period SW swell will interact with the local wind waves to 
produce combined seas to 8 ft near the low pressure through 
early next week.
 
$$
Ramos