000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241620 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is analyzed N of 03N along 96W with isolated clusters of moderate to strong convection flaring along either side of the monsoon trough near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W then across the far southern Caribbean and Panama to the Pacific waters near 07N107W, where it breaks, then resumes at 16N108W to low pres near 13N116.5W to 09N124W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to ITCZ, which then continues W to low pres at 08N137.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within E of the surface low at 13N116W roughly within 75 nm either side of a line from 13.5N113W to 12N117W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection within 180 nm N and 210 nm S of trough between 77W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm across the NE and 120 nm across SW quadrants. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 133W and 141.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Willa continue to race off to the NE this morning, and were located over the southern portions of Coahuila in NE Mexico, and will enter Texas later this afternoon. A weak surface trough trails to the SW from this area to near Las Tres Marias, where moderate cyclonic flow prevails across the waters between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in SW to W swell persist across the waters E of 108W in the region where Willa entered the coastline last night, and will continue to subside throughout the day. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be seen in satellite imagery across the near shore coastal waters from Michoacan to Guadalajara, moving northeastward. W of the Baja california Peninsula, moderate NW flow is expected across the regional waters as the pressure gradient between a ridge to the W and troughing along the W slopes of the Sierra Madres relaxes. Southerly swell from Willa currently moving through the regional waters is mixing with long period NW swell currently across the waters N of 26N to yield seas of 6-8 ft across the waters this morning. These seas will gradually subside to 5-7 ft this afternoon and then to 4-6 ft tonight. The ridge will gradually shift NE and weaken its influence across the region through Fri night, with winds diminishing very slightly. Little change in the pattern is expected through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California...Moderate NW winds and seas 4 to 7 ft with southerly swell currently prevail across the waters S of 25N and will quickly subside through this afternoon. Light N winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected by this afternoon. Light and variable winds are then expected across the entire gulf waters through Thu, with seas of 3 to 4 ft continuing across the far southern gulf waters. Light to moderate NW flow expected on Fri, and light NW flow forecast on Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong northerly drainage flow is occurring across the Gulf this morning and will subside to moderate N to NE flow by noon time. Computer model guidance suggests the next strong northerly gap wind event will begin on Sat evening, and continue through late Mon, with gale force conditions possible Sun night through Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Pulses of fresh NE flow are forecast across and downstream of the Gulf through Thu morning. Extended guidance suggests strong NE gap winds will begin late Mon night. Light northerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough through Fri morning, while moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 5 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low near 13N116.5W will drift NW for about a day before turning SW and reaching near 11.5N122W late Thu, with the low expected to dissipate on Fri. Presently, winds to 25 kt and seas 8 to 9 ft are found within 120 nm of the low and will continue through the next 24 hours. A 1011 mb surface low continues along the ITCZ near 08N137.5W and is expected to move W of 140W today. Very active convection is occurring along and N of the ITCZ there, from 133W to beyond 140W. A 1023 mb surface high near 29N136W will meander over the far NW waters through Thu then shift NE of the area into the weekend. An area of locally strong NE to E trades and 7 to 9 ft seas will persist across the tropical waters from 08N to 14N W of 135W for another day before diminishing. NW swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft, will reach along 32N135W to 28N140W today, and reach from 32N130W to 22N140W tonight, then subside as fresh NE trades with 7 to 9 ft seas, develop from 10N to 23N W of 131W. $$ Stripling